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What will the weather hold for the 2016 Fatbike Frozen Forty?  Thanks to Kristin Clark and 2Wheel Weather, the Fatbike Frozen Forty racers, sponsors and spectators always know what to expect on race day.

Below you will find the hyper-local micro-detail weather and conditions report that Kristin provided for the 2015 Frozen Forty. Be sure to check back as the race nears for the 2016 race forecast!

Wind Chill Remaining Below Zero

Saturday, February 14

*Northwest wind 20-30 mph

*Highs only 0 to 5 degrees above zero

*Wind chill Saturday morning -25 to -35


7AM: Clear, yet very cold.  -1° Wind chill: -30

9AM: Numbing cold. -3° Wind: NW 25 Wind chill: -35

Noon: Still blustery. Wind: N sustained 15 gusts to 25

3pM: Dry, wind diminishing slightly. Wind chill: -20

MN Cold Air Arrives

Take Home Message: It will be a battle against the wind on Saturday, especially out in the open prairie sections at Elm Creek. Luckily the woods will shield racers from the most intense gusts. Weather-wise, the morning will be the toughest part of the race with wind chills as low as -35 degrees. Psychologically the sun will help to warm the soul!


February 11, 2015

Character-Building Cold on Race Day

*Turning Much Colder in the Twin Cities

*Quick 1 inch Snowfall Thursday Night

*Arctic High Pressure Arrives for the Weekend

*Highs in the Single Digits Below Zero Saturday

*Brisk Northwest Wind 15-30 mph

Screen Shot 2015-02-11 at 8.54.02 AM

Snow Recap: Tuesday’s snow turned out to be very selective. The addition of the sleet and freezing rain significantly cut down on the snowfall amounts. Locations just north of Elm Creek received 2 inches, whereas the Frozen 40 course received less than 1 inch.

Frzoen 40 Snow Total

Power of Pow: It’s amazing what just a little snow can do. Even though most Twin Cities locations reported icing Tuesday morning, the little snow that fell during the afternoon was enough to cover up the thin glaze. The Elm Creek singletrack is still in good shape with another snow event on the way.


More Snow: Another quick-hitting clipper produces another minor snow event Thursday night into Friday. The image above shows the projected snowfall accumulation by Friday afternoon. One inch or less is expected at Elm Creek…perfect amount to freshen up the trail.

Screen Shot 2015-02-11 at 8.51.54 AM

Stinging Cold: The flood gates to the arctic have now opened and we get locked into a persistently cold weather pattern through the weekend. To make the cold feel worse, winds will howl over 20 mph resulting in wind chill values as low as 10 below zero at times.


Saturday, February 14

7AM: Very cold. -1° Wind chill: -15

9AM: Cold sunshine. Wind: N 20 Wind chill: -15

Noon: Blustery. Wind: N 15 gusts to 25

3pM: Dry, yet frigid. Wind chill: -17

Take Home Message: Quick inch of snow before race day then turning much colder this weekend. The extra layer of merino wool will do ya good. Winds will be gusting over 20 mph on Saturday but should be muffled in the woods. Predicting great trail conditions for race day, albeit a little cold. The “Frozen” Forty lives up to its name yet again!

Fresh Fatbike Snow Tuesday 

Monday Morning – February 9, 2015

*Incoming storm will bring central Minnesota snow on Tuesday.

*Majority of snow falls during the day.

*Elm Creek trail stewards to groom trail within 24 hours after snow event.

*Snowfall totals ~ 1-3 inches for Elm Creek Park Reserve.

*Winds 30-40 mph likely Wednesday resulting in drifting snow.

*Temperature to remain 10-15 degrees colder than average through weekend.

Latest water vapor/IR satellite combo shows developing storm over the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures aloft may warm enough to support a brief wintry mix over western MN Tuesday morning.

Brewing Storm: Latest water vapor/IR satellite combo shows developing storm over the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures aloft may warm enough to support a brief wintry mix over western MN Tuesday morning.

Prior to the snow, the visible satellite Monday showed a trace of snow depth over the Twin Cities. Image source:

Snow Drought: Prior to Tuesday’s snow, the visible satellite on Monday showed just a trace of snow depth over the Twin Cities; that’s 13 inches below normal.

Screen Shot 2015-02-09 at 9.55.59 AM

Snow Accumulation Forecast: The Frozen 40 course stands a good chance of receiving 3 inches of new snow by Tuesday night. Over 4 inches of snow could fall north of I-94.

Screen Shot 2015-02-09 at 10.04.42 AM

Snow totals will increase the further north you go from the Twin Cities. Elm Creek will be on the higher end of what the metro location will receive. The probability of receiving over 4 inches of snow or more is at 60% for the Cuyuna Lakes region.

Screen Shot 2015-02-09 at 10.08.21 AM

Colder Outlook: The snow that falls Tuesday will stick around into the weekend. Arctic air will occasionally sideswipe Minnesota resulting in colder than average conditions through the weekend. Temperatures on race day Saturday will likely stay in the teens.

Take Home Message: We’ve prayed to the snow gods and they have answered. A much needed snowfall will occur at Elm Creek this week and extended cold will help keep the snow around. Elm Creek trail stewards will need to tend to the trail as the wind picks up Wednesday blowing and drifting the 3 inches of new snow. Saturday looks cold with temps remaining in the teens…perfect for Frozen 40 racers!

Watch for future updates as we get closer to the race!

February 4, 2015

New Fluff at Frozen 40 Race Course! 

On Tuesday, February 3 a fast-moving clipper dumped a solid inch of new snow at Elm Creek.



Elm Creek Snow











Official snow reports just east of Elm Creek showed Coon Rapids and Blaine accumulating 2″ and 1.5″, respectively.

This was a typical Alberta Clipper type snow; very dry and fluffy! The Elm Creek trail crew has been busy grooming and smoothing the new snow.

-Kristin Clark, 2WheelWeather Meteorologist

January 28, 2015

Kristin gets you primed for race day on February 14! Get signed up today!

Frozen 40 Forecast from 2WheelWeather on Vimeo.

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